War in Israel: Update on Current Situation
Iran
Spiraling tensions between Iran and Israel (and the United States) have raised fears that armed conflict could begin soon.
Yesterday, just as reports emerged of difficulties in the negotiations between the United States and the Islamic Republic, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued its harshest-yet report on Iran’s non-compliance with international treaties regarding its nuclear program. This could lead to the country’s being referred to the UN Security Council.
In response, Iran announced plans for the construction of a new uranium enrichment facility.
NBC and the New York Times have reported that Israel informed the US that it has revised its operational plans and concluded training and preparations for an attack on Iran's nuclear installations.
In response, Iran has vowed to retaliate against any Israeli action. A senior Iranian official told local media that if there were an attack, Iran would “surprise” both the US and Israel.
The US said it was preparing to evacuate non-essential State Department personnel and families from several locations in the Middle East, including Iraq and Gulf states. The US Embassy in Jerusalem has restricted travel for its embassy staff who must remain in the greater Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Be'er Sheva areas until further notice.
In response to the tensions, European low-cost airline giant Ryanair has cancelled all Israel flights until the end of August, during the critical summer season.
See here for an explainer of the current concerns over Iran’s nuclear program.
Hostages and Ceasefire Talks
In a covert operation last night, the IDF and Shabak (Shin Bet) recovered the bodies of two hostages and returned them to Israel for burial. One was the body of Yair Yaakov, 59, and the other name has not yet been released.
Ya’akov was kidnapped alive, along with his wife and two sons, from their home on Kibbutz Nir Oz on October 7. His family members were released in November 2023. Five months later, the family was notified that Ya’akov had been killed in captivity, probably on the day of his abduction. Horrifying video footage from Hamas during Ya’akov’s capture shows him sitting wounded on the floor of his kitchen, surrounded by terrorists.
The two bodies were located based on information obtained from a Hamas terrorist recently captured in Gaza.
Last weekend, the body of hostage Pinta Nathapong, 35, from Thailand, was located in Khan Yunis by the Israeli military and brought back to Israel. Nathapong was an agricultural laborer in the avocado fields in Kibbutz Nir Oz. He was kidnapped on October 7 and later murdered by his captors.
53 hostages now remain captive by Hamas, around 20 of whom are believed to be alive.
Negotiations continue between Israel and Hamas to reach an agreement on a limited ceasefire and the release of around ten live hostages. Still, there are no signs of an imminent breakthrough.
IDF Activity
Last week, eight IDF troops were killed in Gaza, the largest number of fallen soldiers in a single week since January. A total of 866 IDF soldiers have been slain during the current war.
Last weekend, after issuing warnings to residents in the area, the air force attacked several sites in the Dahiya neighborhood of Beirut. In violation of the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, the site housed Hezbollah drone production facilities,
Rockets
Missile launches by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen continue on an almost daily basis.
On Tuesday, Israel attacked the Yemeni port of Hodeidah, an essential part of the Houthis’ infrastructure. For the first time, the attack was launched from the sea using Israeli navy missile ships.
Political Developments
Major political turmoil in Israel has continued as a result of the government’s failure to pass a bill that will allow an exemption for ultra-Orthodox citizens (“haredim”) to avoid IDF conscription.
Early this morning, the Knesset voted against a draft opposition bill to disperse and head to new elections. The vote followed hours of filibusters and intense negotiations to bridge gaps over a potential conscription bill.
Israeli courts have ruled that, lacking a new bill, the IDF must begin drafting haredim immediately. The Haredi parties are part of the current ruling coalition; they had been promised legislation that would largely formalize the status quo, whereby most Haredim can study in yeshivot, instead of serving in the IDF. There has been widespread opposition to a haredi exemption for many years, one that has greatly intensified since October 7 with the need for significantly increased numbers of IDF personnel.
The Chair of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Likud MK Yuli Edelstein, has been demanding that any new law impose personal penalties on eligible members of the ultra-Orthodox public who do not enlist. The Haredi political parties have strongly opposed this stipulation, leading to a deadlock.
Earlier in the week, the haredi parties declared they would support a vote to dissolve the Knesset if a new deal was not reached by Wednesday. However, according to many commentators, the ultra-Orthodox politicians feared new elections that would likely see them out of power. They backed down from that demand at the last minute. Instead, the parties agreed on a document that states the principles of what a future bill might look like, including some limited, personal sanctions on draft evaders.
As a result, the Haredi parties did not support the dissolution bill, which was defeated by a vote of 61-53. Nonetheless, Yitzhak Goldknopf, head of the Agudat Israel faction within the Ashkenazi haredi party UTJ, opposed the emerging deal and resigned as Minister of Housing in protest. A different Haredi member of Knesset will likely replace him, so his departure will not topple the government.
Crucially, since the preliminary bill on dissolving the Knesset failed to pass, a similar vote cannot take place until December 2025. This provides the current government with a measure of stability. With no ability to vote to dissolve the Knesset, the Haredi parties have lost an element of leverage in their negotiations on a conscription bill.
If no other developments end the current Knesset’s term earlier, the next elections are scheduled for November 2026.
Other News
Today, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appointed the deputy Shin Bet chief (known only as “S”) as acting head of the domestic security service. The High Court recently determined that Netanyahu had a conflict of interest in firing outgoing Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar due to the agency’s participation in criminal investigations against his top aides.
This weekend, Tel Aviv’s Gay Pride Parade will take place, with the participation of Caitlyn Jenner. Unlike in the past, the US State Department has banned US Embassy personnel from participating in the parade. In previous years, the Embassy also flew the Pride Flag over its building in Tel Aviv, but will not do so this year. Last weekend, the Jerusalem Pride Parade took place in the capital, and Israel’s President Isaac Herzog became the first Israeli leader ever to join the festivities.
For Further Reading
Israelis Unsure Current Military Operation Will Bring the Hostages Home or Topple Hamas
The US-Israel Gaza aid plan is working — which is why Hamas is spreading lies about it
For more information, please contact: Jewish Federations of North America’s Dani Wassner dani.wassner@jewishfederations.org. Subscribe to this weekly update here.